02/28/10
Insects and other foods the trout may be eating:
1.   Blue-winged Olives
2.   Little Black Winter Stoneflies
3.   Streamers - matching sculpin, baitfish and small crayfish
4.   Midges

Fishing Condition Forecast:
After receiving lots of email asking about specific dates in March from mostly all out
of town people, I am going to stick my neck out and make some predictions. I
couldn't do any worse than the National Weather Service has done on their local
forecast for the area. Yesterday morning early, they were saying as much as two
inches of snow would drop during the afternoon and last night and their competitor
was saying there was only a 10% chance. In their defense, I'm sure it's very difficult
for them to make those predictions in marginal situations where a couple of degrees
in temperature may make the difference in snow, rain or lack of either. The park
folks posted the snow level at the pass late yesterday as 36 inches instead of 20.
As long as it takes them, it must happen by some type of Pony Express method.

We should have another front moving through and maybe even more snow next
Tuesday. The front will pass for certain. It is the extent of moisture thats a problem
to predict. The day after the front passes is always the coldest, but I can see
a big
change coming in the later part of next week
. The weather should return to
more normal temperatures and warm up some. I think next weekend could be nice
but the weekend after next will be even better. Now, sure as God made little green
apples, sometime within the next couple or three weeks we will have one of those
bad cold fronts move through and change things for two or three days. That seems
to always happen around the first of April but  we will have some that pass before
then. I just hope it only happens infrequently and not so drastically. With the
weather trend lately, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't have more than one
Blackberry type Winter.
Starting near the end of next week and continuing
through the weekend after next, the outlook for fishing conditions looks
good
. One kicker that could possibly affect that prediction, is heavy rain the first of
next week that melts the huge amount of snow and blows the streams out with the
Southern Runoff I have been joking about, but for now that much precipitation isn't
in the picture. I want predict beyond the middle of March until later on when I can
find more data.

One thing this means is that you should start seeing a few bugs by next weekend in
the lower elevations. Don't look for many,
but their life cycle will be placing
some strong demands on them to hatch
. The due date of a baby can vary
some, but it would be rare or impossible (I'm not sure which), if it took ten months.
By the following weekend, or Saturday the 13th of March, we should have some
fairly stable hatches occurring. From then on, the hatches should continue and the
catching should be easy with the exception of those severe cold fronts that may
happen once or twice.

By the middle of next week, I suggest you have imitations of the following:
Little Black Caddis - pupae and adults
Quill Gordons - Nymphs, Emerging Nymphs, Duns and Spinners
Blue-winged Olives (
Baetis) - #18 Nymphs, Emergers, Duns and Spinners
Blue-winged Olives (
Acentrella/Diphetor) #20 Nymphs, Emergers, Duns and spinners
Blue Quills - Nymphs, Emergers, Duns and Spinners
Little Brown Stoneflies - Nymphs and Adults

You should also have some streamers but other than that, the above flies will keep
you in excellent shape until the first of April. You should add some little Little
Short-horned Caddis and Hendrickson Mayfly imitations by the last week of March.