09/30/13

Insects and other foods the trout
should be eating:
Hatching:
1.     Slate Drakes
2.     Little Yellow Stoneflies
3.     Needle Stoneflies
4.     Mahogany Duns
5.     Little Yellow Quills
6.     Great Autumn Brown Sedges
7.     Blue-winged Olives

Most available - Other types of food:
8.     Sculpin, Minnows (Streamers)
9.     Grasshoppers
10.   Ants
11.   Beetles
12.   Craneflies

Weather and Stream Conditions Forecast - Coming Week
I think this morning's forecast is the first time I have seen an official National Weather
Forecast call for "sprinkles". Maybe I have, and I just don't remember, but it appears
we will have some sprinkles this morning at Gatlinburg. That changes to showers this
afternoon but there's only a 20% chance that will occur. I guess that makes today an
excellent day to fish in the Smokies. The high today is only expected to reach 74
degrees. After all, last Sunday, September 22, was the first day of Autumn.

Sunshine returns Tuesday with a high near 81. Wednesday should continue to be
sunny with a high near 82. A 20% chance of rain returns for Thursday and Friday
with highs both days predicted to be 79.

If the forecast is right, the first signs of a weather front bringing in some real
precipitation is Saturday. At least they raise the odds to 30%. They show a 40%
chance for Saturday night, but that's the only time the chances are that high for the
next week.

Now, I'll admit, my own predictions are probably not worth your time to read, but
something tells me the closer we get to Friday and Saturday, the higher those
chances for rain will be. I'm basing that on a trend I've notice over the past year.
They will increase them as the week goes by and they may even raise the odds of
rain as high as 90 to 100 percent, but only after it actually starts to rain.

Now, you can believe me or the National Weather Service. I say it will rain Friday
night and Saturday in the Gatlinburg area. I'm not predicting a flood, just that it will
rain.
If they are right, the odds are it won't rain this week or weekend
because they are not showing the chances over 40 percent and that's only
for Saturday night.
They are only showing 30% for Saturday and Sunday. That
means it probably isn't going to rain at all from now until next Monday.

I say they are wrong. You may wonder why I believe that and if so, it's because they
always tend to increase the odds of rain the closer an approaching weather front
gets to this area. Oh well, that's my only way to add some fun to an otherwise boring
weather forecast. Boring or not, it is a excellent forecast if you plan on fishing the
Smokies.

There's one thing for sure. If they are right, and the chances are better it won't rain
within the next week than it will rain within the next week, the streams will all continue
to drop for the next week. They will probably be reaching near their normal early fall
levels by this coming weekend. That will make it a little tougher to catch trout but I  
much prefer the normal low, fall levels over the spring-like higher stream levels. It
adds a little challenge to catching trout but it makes it much easier to get around
wading the streams.
Copyright 2013 James Marsh
New Schedule of Daily
Articles
Mondays: Weather and Stream
Conditions Forecast - Coming Week
Tuesdays: Fly Fishing Strategies -
Which Flies To Use - Coming Week
Wednesday: Fishing Tales
Thursday: Fly Fishing Strategies and
Weather/Stream Conditions Update
Friday: Whatever Hits Me
Saturday: Getting Started
Sunday: Fly Fishing School
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