01/16/12

Insects and other foods the trout may be eating:
1.    Midges
2.    Little Winter Stoneflies
3.    Sculpin, Minnows (Streamers)

Fly Fishing Strategies - What Fly To Use - Part 26
I am going ahead today instead of the normal Tuesday time to do the fly fishing strategy article.
The reason is due to the huge swing in the weather with a warm front moving in today. Today
begins a warm up period for the first time in a few days. The high should reach around 51 in
Gatlinburg. Right now it's still 29 degrees, so it will take a little while before the water in the
streams responds very much. The good thing is that the low for tonight will only go down to about
40 degrees. There's about a thirty percent change it will rain later today and slightly higher for
tonight. The rain would actually help increase the water temperature faster than anything.

Tuesday, we are expecting a heat wave compared to what we have been experiencing. The high
may reach 58 degrees. The only thing that we may be able to complain about is rain and wind. It
will be windy tomorrow. Tomorrow night it will get back to normal winter weather with the
temperature dropping back to about freezing with a chance of snow. For sure, the higher
mountains will get some snow.

Wednesday the high will only be 39 and will drop down to 22 Wednesday night. The good new is
the long range forecast calls for it returning to normal winter weather with the highs being around
50 and the lows about freezing. The weekend forecast is looking as good as you can expect for
January.

The only unknown in this is the amount of rain, meaning whether it's enough to bring the stream
levels up very high. Right now they are in good shape but the ground is wet and it won't take
much rain to bring them up high.

This afternoon, I suggest you stick with the same strategy I recommend for last week. After the
sight warm up, you cannot expect anything to hatch other than midges It will be too warm for the
Little Winter Stoneflies to hatch. The BWOs have hatched except for some almost rare and tiny
(hook size 22) species. Today and tomorrow, a small stonefly nymph no larger than a hook size
18 will offer your highest odds of success. I would use the Little Winter Stonefly nymph since we
know there's plenty of them in the water and the previous cold spell may have them moving
around on the bottom of the stream getting ready to crawl out and hatch.

The warmer, probably slightly higher water we will have for Tuesday, and also considering the
cloud cover we should have for the next two days, should make conditions excellent for streamer
fishing. That will give you pretty good odds for success with still a very good chance to hook a
larger size trout. As I suggest last week, that's what I would go with if the stream levels rise.
Again, I will point out, it will not provide as high of odds of success numbers wise as the small
nymphs will provide.

As far as flies are concerned, the strategy for Wednesday and Thursday will be about the same,
but the trout will return to the slower flowing water out of the current in the deeper pockets, holes
in the bottom of the runs, and the slower water of the pools - that's if they have time to move. The
problem will again become finding the trout in the much c older water.

I think I'll end it at this point and see what the conditions look like for Friday through the weekend.
Right now, they look great but to make sure I don't provide a useless strategy, I will wait and
respond later this week.

This is the 26th strategy article or 26th week I have written articles for this series. That's exactly
half a year. Things will really begin to get interesting in another month of two when everyone
thinks the trout are going to jump out on the bank and yell "we give up". There will be plenty of
trout caught (since a hundred times the number of angers will be fishing), but also more lies and
more excuses will arise than is written on every line of every page of every book in every library in
the World.
Copyright 2012 James Marsh