12/06/11
Insects and other foods the trout may be eating:
1.    Blue-winged Olives
2.    Little Yellow Quills (
Heptagenia Group) (slight chance)
3.    Needle Stoneflies (slight chance)
4     Great Brown Autumn Sedge (slight chance)
5.    Midges
6.    Sculpin, Minnows (Streamers)

Fly Fishing Strategies - What Fly To Use - Part 20
It's time for another weekly fly fishing strategy article and as has been the usual situation for the past
three weeks or so, the constantly changing weather conditions will again make it difficult to do for a
full week in advance. There are a few changes from the past few weeks. The weekend conditions will
be just the reverse of what the previous weekend weather patterns have been. It will be cold this
weekend and warm during the week.

This current cold front that's approaching us has slowed down its Northwest to Southeast movement
considerably. Right now it's just creeping along sucking up warm air from the Gulf of Mexico and
distributing it across most of the Southeastern U. S. Instead of having the normal, unseasonable
warm temperatures this weekend that we have been having the past few weekends, the frontal
slowdown will result in just the opposite situation. Showers will fall today until about midnight tonight
and then, according to the National Weather Service, you can begin to call the precipitation "rain".

It will turn a little cooler Wednesday but will continue to rain on into the night and most likely will turn
to snow. As the cold front approaches, it will bring snow to the higher elevations of the park for sure
by Wednesday and there may even be a touch or the white stuff that falls in the foothills.

It will still reach a rather warm temperature on Thursday, but it will slowly begin to cool down to just
below freezing temperatures during the night. The frontal passage will clear the skies for Friday for
sure, with only a high predicted of around 48 degrees for Gatlinburg.

The warmer than normal weather will come to an end with the closing of the work week.
Friday night's low will go down to about 25 degrees. That makes it obvious that you want have to be
in a hurry to get out of bed to fish early Saturday morning. Saturday's high is predicted to be only
reach 43 degrees, falling down to a cold 24 degrees for the night. That means you can look forward
to
Saturday's water temperatures being in the high thirties. If you fish before noon Saturday,
look for some ice to accumulate in your guides.

If the long range forecast is on target, late afternoon Sunday will be a better time to fish with a high
predicted of 48 degrees. Getting from Saturday's night's low of 24 up to 48 will take some time
though.

The cold weekend weather isn't all that bad. It's more in line with normal than the warm weather we
have been having. It's also more in line with the needs of about the only aquatic insects (other than
midges) there are left to hatch this year -
baetis Blue-winged Olives. Don't look for any "blanket"
hatches. They don't like bright light and that will be par for the course at the time they will hatch. The
ideal situation is cloud covered days, even with light snow or rain, but that needs to occur when the
water temperature is in the high forties, not the mid fifties. You can look forward to only sporadic,
isolated hatches to occur. By the way, the bi-brooded
baetis Fall hatch produces hook size 18 duns,
not 16's and not 14's.

The strategy I'm recommending is beginning to read like "Word" is in the stuck software mode but
there will be some changes that I am making for the next few days. Also, as usual, the strategy
should change with the daily roller coaster changes in the weather.
Every day brings about major
changes in stream levels and weather conditions.
The biggest unknown and important variable
will be the water levels. The streams have just recently gotten back in shape to where they can be
waded safely.

Something To Keep In Mind:
I realize "safe wading" stream levels aren't set in stone by Congress, thank goodness: however,the
situation is probably even worse. In many cases they are planted in many unsuspecting minds of
anglers through the websites and blogs of "guides" and "fly shops" struggling for business.
The
exact level the streams can be safely waded, according to the guides and fly shops,
depends on just how desperate the guides and fly shops are for business
.

Safe wading levels are also very arbitrary, meaning it also depends on just how hard anyone wants
to fight the current to keep their balance without falling into the cold water. There's not a fish that
swims that's worth more than the life of any human.  

Continued:
This strategy article will continue tomorrow. I'm short on time this morning.  
Copyright 2011 James Marsh