10/13/11
Insects and other foods the trout may be eating:
1.    Blue-winged Olives (Little BWOs)
2.    Mahogany Duns
3.    Little Yellow Quills (
Heptagenia Group)
4.    Little Yellow Stoneflies
5.    Needle Stoneflies
6.    Slate Drakes
7.    Sculpin, Minnows (Streamers)
8.    Grasshoppers
9.    Ants
10.  Beetles
11.  Craneflies
12.  Great Brown Autumn Sedge

Stream and Weather Outlook For This Weekend
The Smokies finally got a little rain yesterday, the streams rose some, and then fell
abruptly. It's raining again as I'm writing this at 6:00 AM in the morning. The forecast
says it's almost certain to rain more today but it's always difficult getting an accurate
prediction for the mountains as to how much rain is expected. The local news weather
guys understandable focus on the valleys. It should rain today (90 percent chance)
and early tonight (80 percent chance).  The question is, just how much it will rain in
the mountains. The streams can certainly use the rain.

Tomorrow will be a little on the windy side as the front passes with only a slight chance
of rain. Unless there's more rain than expected, based on the low water table level,
the stream levels should drop fast and in almost any event, be in good shape for this
weekend. Today and tomorrow may present a good opportunity to hook a nice brown
trout. The water will be stained and I would expect the brown trout will begin their
efforts to move ahead into the spawning cycle.

According to studies at other streams, where fish managers were able to trap and
measure the upstream movement of brown trout, the results always shows that if the
water is low and clear, there's far less upstream migration activity during the daylight
hours than during the evenings. In fact, if the water is real low, they seem to move
less even at night.

I would suspect the larger brown trout in the park are even more cautious about
moving around well exposed in low, clear water. In other words, I'm predicting they will
be out moving around this weekend, at least to some extent. At some point in the
beginning of the pre-spawn cycle, the browns begin to increasingly become more
aggressive and tend to strike streamers more readily. If the water is on the high side
and a little off color, or even heavily stained, I suggest you give a streamer a try in
those streams with brown trout. If it's fairly clear, use our Perfect Fly Brown Sculpin. If
it's dingy, use our Yellow Marabou Sculpin.

A good thing that will happen for certain, is the nightly temperatures will drop and the
resulting water temperatures will also average lower during the next few days. This will
help spur the second part of the bi-brooded
baetis (Blue-winged Olive) hatch as well
as other smaller species of
Acentrella and Diphetor genera. The baetis will be a hook
size 18 and fairly easy to see. The cooler nights will also probably increase the
intensity of the Little Yellow Quill hatches occurring. The high pressure system that will
prevail will bring clear skies this weekend and that will mean the hatches will be short
in duration and less intense, but all in all, things should improve, especially for those
who have trouble catching trout from low, clear water.

By the way, you should also keep an eye out for some Little Yellow Stoneflies that
may possibly hatch. Also, late in the day look for any fall caddis - Great Brown Autumn
Sedge activity - hatches or egg laying. All in all, excepting the very slight possibility of
too much rain, conditions for fishing should be good this weekend.  

I can probably update this tomorrow and be more accurate as to stream levels.


Copyright 2011 James Marsh