01/06/11
Insects and other foods the trout may be eating:
1.    Blue-winged Olives
2  .  Sculpin, baitfish and small crayfish (Imitate with streamers)
3.    Midges



National Weather Forecast: It may snow or it may not snow!
Before I get started, i want to mention that it is not my intention to make fun of the
National Weather Service. When they forecast snow in areas of the country where it
normally snows, they do a great job. Well, maybe they do a good job anywhere they
forecast the weather. What I mean more specifically, is that their forecast of snow is
usually very accurate in areas of the country where it snows often. Where and when
there's a chance for snow in the South, or any section of the country where it
normally doesn't snow, forecasting snow obviously becomes a hit and miss
proposition. My meager understanding of weather provides just enough clues to
figure that much out. The reason is that just a tiny change in one of many factors
makes a huge difference in whether it snows or doesn't snow. One or two degrees
of temperature, twenty miles north or south, or in a place like Gatlinburg
Tennessee, a few hundred feet of elevation, can mean it snows or it doesn't snow.

Yesterday afternoon, at 4:00 P.M., I sat down to see what Neil on the Fox News had
to say about what the new legislators were up too. Angie had gone to the grocery
store. At about 6:00 P.M. I looked out the upstairs window to see if the she was back
(the car was in the driveway) to see that it had snowed at least 3 or 4 inches since
she left to go to the store. I couldn't quite believe my eyes.  It looked as if snow
hadn't stuck very well on the black asphalt street but everything else was solid
white. It had only been two days since the 12 inches of snow in our yard had
completely melted.

Earlier in the day I had noticed that Mt. LeConte and the tops of most of the other
mountains were white but that's fairly common. I didn't pay any attention to the
weather forecast yesterday. I had planned on fishing for the first time in a few days
as soon as I returned from an appointment with the doctor at U. T. Hospital early this
morning. So at my normal rise and shine time of 4:00 A.M. this morning, I checked
the national weather forecast. First, lets look at today's forecast:

Of course there's the "winter storm warning" and then this:
Today:
A chance of snow showers before 11am, then a slight chance of snow showers after
1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming west between 10 and
15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

"A chance of snow showers before 11:00 am and then a slight chance of snow
showers after 1pm"???????
I guess that means from 11:00am to 1:00pm there
is not a chance in "Gatlingburg" that it will snow.
That's when you need to go
shopping. You have 2 hours to get it done or take a chance getting stuck in snow.

Now, the rest of the 7 day forecast:
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around
27. West wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of rain
between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy,
with a high near 34. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a
low around 23. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a
high near 36. West wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19.
Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

The only thing I can determine from looking at the forecast, is that it may snow, or it
may not snow. When it may snow or not snow is anyone's guess. It may not even
snow at all the next 7 days. The chances appear better that it will not snow than it
does that it will snow. However, I must consider there's already 4 inches in my yard.

The forecast means, there could be as much as 12 inches of snow any hour of any
day during the next week in Gatlinburg. It also means it may not snow at all during
the next 7 days in Gatlinburg.

When it snows in Gatlinburg, it usually means the roads in the park will be closed
soon. However, that happens when it doesn't snow in Gatlinburg but snows a few
hundred feet of elevation higher in the mountains.

All I know for sure, is the area around our house is presently covered solid with
snow. Now, I'm just hoping the streets will be clear enough for me to get to U. T.
Hospital in Knoxville this morning so they can figure out what the forecast is for me.
The results will probably turn out to be about  the same as the current weather
forecast. Chances are 50% you will live a few years but there's a 50% you may not
live for a few years. I guess I'll just have to wait for the Obama Health Care Death
panel to make that decision based on the economy. If something doesn't change, it
will depend on the cost of keeping this baby boomer alive.

Typical Fly Shop Internet Fishing forecast/advise for the Smokies:
For today, the fishing should be great but there's a 50% chance it may not be. If it
turns out it isn't good, then there's a 100% chance the fishing will be bad. Use a
nymph and if that doesn't work, use a dry fly. The fish either feed on the surface or
below the surface.

If I worked for the National Fishing Forecast Center, My Fishing forecast
would look something like this:
Currently, there's a hazardous fishing warning but today until 11:00 am, there's a
50% chance the catching will be good. After 2:00 pm, there's a 50% chance the
catching will be bad. Tonight, until 1:00 pm, there's an 80% chance the fishing will
be bad. After 1:00 pm until 8:00 am there's an 20% chance the catching will be
good.

Copyright 2010 James Marsh